Future of the Book

(notes from panel at Spring 2011 Gaithersburg Book Festival)

Participants:

Michael Norris, Editor, Book Publishing Report
Jed Lyons, President & CEO, Rowman & Littlefield (publishing)
Geoff Shandler, Editor-in-Chief,  Little, Brown & Co. (publishing)
Mark LaFramboise, Book seller and lead book buyer,  Politics & Prose (independent bookstore)
Gail Ross, Founder & President, Ross Yoon Agency, (commercial non-fiction, media law)

Norris— He cautioned that authors should be focusing on the quality of their work, rather than what format it will be published in. You don’t build a book for a device that will be obsolete in 11 months;  90% of iPad owners have not read a single eBook on their iPad. The people who buy print books outnumber the people who buy eBooks by 5 to 1. “We will have print books forever, we’re also going to have eBooks forever.” 

Lyons–In 2010, his company (Brown & Littlefield) published more books than ever before (he noted  they are publishing more different titles now, because they are selling fewer copies of each). Mentions AuthorSolutions with negative implications–says average number of copies sold by self-publishers (SP) using print on demand (POD) is ~100. (He did not offer statistics on how many eBook copies that SP sells.) Although there are many more publishers now–7,000–most SP books are not sold through normal channels.  Lyons states that SP books breakdown into 2/3 fiction, with half of those being  erotica. Industry wide, Lyons says,  eBooks are only 6% of total sales volume. He expects nonfiction sales will double in 2011 (to 10-12%).  (It was not clear if “sales volume” meant # of copies sold, or $ value of the sales.) He thinks eBooks are great news for publishers because of their low production cost–no warehousing, etc. Thinks Kindle is the leading e-reader,  their product is “inch deep, mile wide”,and  easier on the eyes. Business model of iPad is different, he says, going deep instead of wide. B&N claims to have 25% of the eReader market. Google has a larger stable of content–because they’ve been digitizing books for quite a while. Biggest concern about proliferation of titles (i.e., the influx of SP authors) is quality–removal of the filter that publishers provided (protecting the public from “drek”).

Shandler–Doesn’t like electronic card catalogs, likes stacks–he has high praise for “stumble upon” encounters, and thinks it is vital to figure out how to provide serendipity in a digital world. He points out that Dictionary.com adds 243 cookies to your browser, and tailors responses to those cookies–this reduces serendipity. In a survey of 43,000 readers,  researchers found that when shopping online, 23% of shoppers end up buying something they hadn’t planned for, but when shopping in brick & mortar stores it is 48% that purchase something extra. Shandler thinks it is a bad sign that there are no longer book reviews in DC or LA papers. Also commented that the industry hasn’t figured out how to let libraries have eBooks.

LaFramboise–Thinks the changes in publishing (SP, eBooks, and POD) is a great challenge (therefore a great opportunity). Cautions there is heavy competition for your readers. with traditional books stores being challenged by deep discounting and superstores. He says eBooks are 15-20% of the market (again, this is not defined, so both speakers could be correct). LaFramboise views the biggest challenge to be simply  getting more people to read. His store does sell SP books on consignment, local authors only.

Ross–She is a lawyer and agent, covering topics like eBook rights vs enhanced book rights. Hardcover is a list price royalty. Agency model is used for eBooks–25% of net received by publisher (or maybe of the 70% that Amazon pays them). Trade paperbacks–7.5% of list price?? Hardcover royalties are more than eBook royalties, which in turn are more than royalties for trade paperbacks. Publishers used to delay the releases of other formats (eBooks and paperbacks) until the hardback sales had played out. This affects author advances. Her clients see more sales to libraries than to independent bookstores.

Bottom Line (my personal take)–Authors need to be focusing on honing their craft, creating a higher quality product. We need to be encouraging people to read more, and more people to read.  Who cares which format wins out, as long as people continue to pay to read.  As an SP author, a prudent strategy is to make your titles available on as many platforms as possible.

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